Tajikistan’s Gas Boom: Prosperity or Conflict?

hina’s vigorous quest to secure consistent gas supplies may help underwrite a natural gas-fuelled boom in Tajikistan, which so far has been Central Asia’s poorest and most energy-starved republic. A gas boom in Tajikistan will require astute financial and political management to minimize disruptions that sudden, large foreign investments and revenue inflows could cause. Dushanbe will also face foreign policy challenges from increased competition between Russia, which considers Tajikistan part of its Near Abroad, and China, which will likely become Tajikistan’s most important economic partner.

Tajikistan’s Bokhtar region – which at 35,000 square km is larger than the American state of Maryland – could hold as much as 114 trillion cubic feet of gas and 8.5 billion barrels of crude oil and/or condensate, according to Gustafson Associates.  As such, Tajikistan’s gas and oil reserve base could ultimately prove to be on par with that of the world-class offshore gas discoveries being made off East Africa. In March 2013, CNPC spent US$4.2 billion to purchase a 20 percent stake in Mozambique’s Area 4 from Eni of Italy. Area 4 could contain 75 trillion cubic feet of gas – enough to supply China’s annual consumption for 14 years, based on 2011 demand levels.  Yet in Tajikistan, CNPC could potentially access even larger reserves, with the added bonus that geographic and security constraints make them captive supplies for China’s large and growing natural gas market.