Estimated boundary of Russian budget stability is $40 per barrel of Urals

The baseline scenario of the project macroeconomic forecast of the Russian Ministry of Economy, on the basis of which the Government will adjust the budget of 2016 and take anti-crisis plan for this year, has been calculated based on the Urals price of $40 per barrel. It suggests the federal budget deficit in the amount of 5.1% of GDP, privatization for 0.9 trillion rubles, some strengthening of the ruble, continuation of the recession in the industry and in the economy in general, preservation of about 1.5 trillion rubles in the Reserve Fund with unsealing of the National Welfare Fund. In 2017, the persistence of the low oil prices will cause the already inevitable tax increases, primarily oil ones. For the price of oil at $25 per barrel, with which the Ministry of Economy calculated a conservative scenario, there is apparently no balanced budget strategy.

The Kommersant has got calculations of the Russian Economy Ministry on the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, which were used in the discussion of the anti-crisis plan of the Parliament Building (yesterday its last version was prepared for the submission to the Government) and in the preparation of amendments to the current budget of 2016 that are expected to appear in State Duma in April 2016. The calculations also include the final proposal the Ministry of Finance on current balancing the budget. Let’s recall that the anti-crisis plan’s structure is such that a part of its items funding must be found by the Ministry of Finance in the process of the budget execution - the calculation of the Ministry of Economy states on what money the Government can count, when the average Urals price is $40 per barrel (the January price, we recall, was about $28 per barrel). The baseline forecast Economy Ministry was calculated for the same price of Urals.