Oil market to become stable not earlier than in 2017

​But anyway the accumulated surplus will prevent price rise.

The oil market might become stable not earlier than in 2017 and the reduction of reserves will start only in 2018, is said in the new mid-term forecast of the IEA.

In 2014 oil surplus was 0.9 mln barrels a day, in 2015 – 2 mln barrels a day, in 2016 – it will grow by another 1.1 mln barrels a day and only in 2017 it will fall to 0.1 mln barrels, but the accumulated reserves will prevent the price rise.

Low oil price will not support the demand – if in 2015 the consumption growth was higher than average (the growth by 1.6 mln barrels a day or 1.7% against 2014), in the coming 5 years it will not exceed on average 1.2 mln barrels a day almost not dependent on how the prices will fall. The consumption in Asia will grow most of all (from 23.7 mln barrels a day to 28.9 mln barrels a day by 2021).

North America will stay a net-importer of oil – the export from the USA (the ban was cancelled in December) will grow by 0.1 mln barrels a day only, IEA forecasts, explaining that the exhaustion of capacities for storage could improve the situation (otherwise it is inefficient to ship oil to Europe).